Forecasters unveil weather outlook for upcoming winter across US

NOAA predicting mild winter in New England – Boston News, Weather, Sports

The northwestern United States, including parts of Northern California near the OR border, is likely to see the highest chances of warmer temperatures. He also forecasted a warm winter, heavily based on weak snowfall in Siberia.

The Climate Prediction Center issues updates its 3-month outlooks once per month, NOAA said, and the next update for this winter is expected November 15. "There's a 70-to-75 percent chance El Nino will develop in the next few months".

While El Nino is the biggest factor in the forecast, long-term warming from human-caused climate change is a factor, too, Halpert said.

But North and SC, along with much of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic, the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley, "all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures", NOAA said.

El Nino tends to generate an active subtropical jet stream that would hike precipitation across the southern half of the country, including in Southern California, where beneficial rains could swiftly morph into threatening flooding and mudslides.

Don't reach for those hand-warmers just yet - it may be a mild winter in most of the United States this year.

- No part of the U.S.is favored to have below-average temperatures.

PRECIPITATION: Halpert said the southern one-third of the United States and much of the East Coast could be facing a wetter-than-normal December and January.

Hawaii, Montana, Michigan, parts of Idaho, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Indiana and OH are forecast to be drier than normal, with the biggest likelihood in Hawaii, Montana and Michigan.

Even so, it's no time to ditch the shovels and heavy winter jackets, with NOAA warning that its forecast does not mean the winter of 2018-2019 will not feature major snowstorms.

If NOAA's outlook holds true and much of the nation is milder than normal, it will mark the fourth straight warmer-than-normal winter for the Lower 48.

Two winters ago was practically the winter without a winter. It ranked as the sixth-warmest winter on record, and everywhere, except the Pacific Northwest, was warmer than normal.

Halpert said the track record of winter outlooks is better than that of outlooks for other seasons, or about 40 percent better than the flip of a coin - good enough for people to be able to utilize the outlooks.

NOAA's Winter Outlook indicates our region is looking at a 33% to 50% chance for warmer-than-normal conditions.

"Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance", the agency said.

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